If there’s anything certain in today’s farm economy, it’s uncertainty. From government shutdowns to evolving trade patterns and delays in renewable fuel policy, agricultural markets are confronting a steady stream of challenges.
In a recent sit-down between the Iowa Soybean Association and Jake Moline and Cooper Carlson of StoneX, three themes dominated the conversation: input costs, trade, and policy. StoneX, a Fortune 100 company with deep Midwest roots and more than 70 offices worldwide, has a strong agricultural focus—particularly in its West Des Moines office, where roughly half the staff works on the brokerage side.
“We consult grain elevators on how to manage basis and spreads. That’s where merchandisers make or lose money — and it’s been a tough environment the last few years,” says Moline, a risk management consultant for StoneX.
It’s been difficult for farmers as well. USDA data shows that since 2020, seed expenses have risen 18%, fuel and oil 32%, fertilizer 37%, and interest expenses more than 70%. The ongoing government shutdown, which began Oct. 1, has introduced additional instability. With USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on hold, producers and analysts are left without key production data, creating more questions than answers about supply, demand, and yield expectations.
Trade Tensions
Markets can’t be assessed without understanding the supplies on hand and where those supplies are headed.
“By this point in the year, we’d normally have 500 million bushels of soybeans sold to China,” Moline says. “Right now, we’ve shipped zero.”
That dramatic slowdown in exports is weighing heavily on the soybean market.
“People say we’ll just sell them somewhere else, but that’s not how global trade works,” Moline adds. “Every week we don’t move beans, we lose demand.”
Soybean organizations, including the United Soybean Board, Michigan Soybean Committee, and Iowa Soybean Association, recognize the importance of maintaining export relationships. Through hosting and participating in trade missions, they continue to strengthen ties with established buyers while expanding market share in emerging regions. Recent visits by U.S. soybean farmer leaders have included Korea, India, Japan, Egypt, Mexico, Vietnam, the European Union, China, Morocco, Guatemala, the Philippines, Chile, Costa Rica, and Thailand, among others.
Soy Crush Expansion
Domestic soybean processing has surged, fueled largely by demand for renewable diesel. For the first time, biofuel use of soybean oil has exceeded volumes used for exports or domestic food consumption. As soybean crush grows, so does the supply of soybean meal.
“We’re seeing more beans stay home,” says Carlson, a commodity economic analyst specializing in renewable fuels for StoneX. “Crush demand is helping offset some of the lost exports.”
If all planned crush capacity expansions are completed by 2030, the U.S. will see a 22% increase in domestic crush capacity compared to the beginning of 2023, according to the American Soybean Association.
The long-term health of the crush industry—and the buildout of plants requiring extended timelines—will hinge on biofuel blending levels for 2026 and beyond, says Scott Gerlt, ASA’s chief economist. Favorable levels, he notes, would help soybean farmers secure greater value for their crop.
Carlson adds that some of the export demand now at risk could be replaced by domestic utilization.
“If we’re trying to incentivize production at home (in the U.S.), be less reliant on our trade partners, seeing some demand from our trade partners dissolve … then we’ve got our politicians looking internally to see what we can do on the domestic side,” Carlson says.
Renewable Fuels Outlook
The policy landscape remains one of the biggest uncertainties. The EPA’s upcoming Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 could significantly boost soybean oil demand. Clean Fuels Alliance America, the trade association representing biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF producers and feedstock providers, is advocating to make the proposed 5.61 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel volume obligations for 2026—a 65% jump from 2025—permanent. Reallocating proposed Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) would also strengthen soy-producing states’ position in the soybean oil market, as soy states remain some of the nation’s leading biodiesel producers.
Still, delays in implementation, uncertainty around small refinery exemptions, and the government shutdown have created hesitation in the fuels market.
“The only constant in renewables is uncertainty,” Carlson says. “It’s hard to plan when the rules keep changing.”
Unsold, Unprotected
For farmers, market uncertainty has real financial consequences. Many were unable to secure profitable prices ahead of harvest.
“Usually there’s at least one time where new crop futures trade above that spring crop insurance price between spring and fall,” Moline says. “That did not happen this year on one single day. Most of the bushels that are coming into an elevator this fall are unsold and unprotected.”
With fewer shipments moving to what was once a dominant trading partner, storage is tight, cash flow is squeezed, and rising interest costs are eroding margins.
“We’ve got a bumper crop, limited storage, and high costs,” Moline says. “Growers don’t have many good options right now.”
Originally shared by the Iowa Soybean Association. Title and article edited for purpose and clarity. Image Credit: Pixabay – CJ
Notice: The Michigan Advanced Biofuels Coalition (MiABC) does not lobby or influence policy in any way. The policy interests of Michigan soybean farmers and biodiesel producers are supported by the Michigan Soybean Association and Clean Fuels Alliance America, respectively. This post is shared for educational purposes only.